Avalanches and Olive Branches: A Multimethod Analysis of Disasters and Peacemaking

Multimethod analysis of earthquakes ’ effects in two enduring rivalries demonstrates that natural disaster can promote rapprochement, political steps toward warmer relations that make it difficult for interstate rivalry to continue. Public expression of compassion and support for rapprochement create audience costs for leaders who otherwise would maintain hostile policies toward the rival state. However, routine violence, including communal violence, discourages public support for postdisaster cooperation and rapprochement. Content analysis and time-series analysis of rivalry change in two cases, India–Pakistan and Greece–Turkey, demonstrate these phenomena, and comparative case study analysis shows that communal violence helps account for divergent outcomes between the two cases. Keywords rivalry, shock, disaster diplomacy, rapprochement, audience costs Can natural disasters promote rapprochement between rival states? Advocates of “disaster diplomacy ” argue that while earthquakes, floods, windstorms, and tsunami result in human tragedies, these events also generate opportunities for international cooperation, even betwee