Have Extended Trading Hours Made Agricultural Commodity Markets Riskier?

Traders in agricultural commodity markets view volatility dif-ferently depending on their objectives. Producers generally dis-like uncertainty and often trade on futures markets to mitigate the risk associated with potential changes in prices. If futures markets themselves become excessively risky, however, due to high volatility in the prices of futures contracts, producers may begin to question the use of futures markets to mitigate risk. Unlike producers, nonproducers— traders with no direct involvement in producing or using the underly-ing commodity—seek to profit from uncertainty by predicting which direction prices are headed. Volatile futures prices, therefore, present nonproducers with a profit opportunity. Commodity exchanges have undergone structural changes recently, leading to concerns about price volatility and risk management. In May 2012, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) extended its electronic trading hours. Since then, the CME and other exchanges have been open for trading during the release of key government supply and demand reports. Producers are concerned that trading during the release of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports will exacerbate price volatil-ity, thus distorting markets and making risk management strategies more difficult. Proponents of extended trading hours, however, have argued for greater flexibility and modernization in commodity trading. Nathan Kauffman is an assistant vice president and branch executive at the Omaha branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. This article is on the bank’s website at www.KansasCityFed.org