Performance History and Prediction Modeling for Minnesota Pavements

Issues and problems encountered in developing performance prediction models for pavements in Minnesota are discussed. The purpose of these models is to predict remaining life. The models are being incorporated into the Minnesota Depart-ment of Transportation pavement management system. The development of the models was centered on the prediction of future distress levels rather than the prediction of a compos-ite index. The prediction models were based on about 13,000 surface condition data records collected on the entire pave-ment system between 1983 and 1991. The modeling was based on simple two variable models relating distress density to age. Additional variables such as surface type, traffic, and structure were handled by grouping the pavements by spe-cific attributes. The project resulted in a set of performance prediction models for about 100 pavement groupings. Th