How Fast Can We Evolve Something?

When applying a Genetic Algorithm to a new problem, how many generations should one reasonably expect to wait before reaching an acceptable solution? Using arguments based on information flow into the genepool, mediated by selection each generation, we present a rough and ready heuristic. The Problem You have encoded a new problem for solution by Genetic Algorithm (GA) in what you hope is a sensible manner, using a population size and mutation rates that appear appropriate. Yet after 10,000 generations you are nowhere near reaching an acceptable solution; was that long enough to wait? The textbooks and standard literature provide surprisingly little advice on this crucial matter. Using arguments inspired by information-theoretic approaches to evolution (Kimura