R RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS

Global activity strengthened during the second half of 2013 and is expected to improve further in 2014–15. The impulse has come mainly from advanced economies, although their recoveries remain uneven. With supportive monetary conditions and a smaller drag from fiscal con-solidation, annual growth is projected to rise above trend in the United States and to be close to trend in the core euro area economies. In the stressed euro area economies, however, growth is projected to remain weak and fragile as high debt and financial fragmentation hold back domes-tic demand. In Japan, fiscal consolidation in 2014–15 is projected to result in some growth moderation. Growth in emerging market economies is projected to pick up only modestly. These economies are adjusting to a more difficult external financial environment in which internationa