2008), Modelling international tourism demand and uncertainty in Maldives and Seychelles: a portfolio approach

The sovereign archipelagos of the Maldives and Seychelles in the Indian Ocean are small island tourism economies (SITEs), both of which have small populations and are geographically isolated from the rest of the world. These two SITEs vary profoundly in their territorial size, total land area, prospects for self-reliance in economic development, and an overwhelming reliance on tourism as a source of exports. As a result of time-varying effects such as oil shocks, natural disasters, ethnic conflicts, crime, and the threat of global terrorism, among others, there have been dramatic changes in the arrivals of international tourists to these two countries. An examination of these variations i