Monetary Policy and Long-term Interest Rates

This paper documents some new empirical results about the monetary policy and long-term interest rates in the United States. It shows that changes in the monetary policy stance are more predictable to the bond market in the 1990s than in the 1970s. This shift in the predictability of the monetary policy actions affects the policy’s impact on long-term interest rates as well as the forecasting power of the yield spread for the future changes in short-term interest rates