Summary

This paper provides a brief overview of the generic forward projections that were undertaken using the reference case models for the 2011 assessments for bigeye, skipjack, and yellowfin tunas. These models were adopted by SC7 for the provision of management advice. Similar methods were used as in previous years and the results are provided in the form of an excel spreadsheets with a separate worksheet for each species. Of particular interest from the projections is that maintenance of bigeye tuna catch and effort levels observed in the fishery in 2009 results in F/FMSY remaining high and is at a projected level of 1.39 in 2021. However, for the scenario best approximating the reported catch and effort in the fishery in 2010, F/FMSY declines and is at a projected level of 0.97 in 2021. For scenarios that mimic a total purse seine closure, there is a relatively small incremental reduction in F/FMSY compared to that achieved by a FAD closure. However, this comes at a cost of substantial reductions in total catch