The Seasonal Evolution of Sea Ice Cover off eastern Canada as Simulated by a Coupled Ice-Ocean Model for 1991/92 and expected 2xCO2 atmospheric conditions.

A full three-dimensional ocean model coupled to an ice model using realistic geometry and atmospheric forcing is used to simulate seasonal evolution of the pack ice along the Canadian east coast for present atmospheric conditions and those expected under (2xCO2) global climate warming. The ice-ocean model consists of a ten-category ice model developed by Hibler coupled to the ocean general circulation model developed by Bryan and Cox. The coupled ice-ocean model was presented in detail by Ikeda et al. (1996) and modified by Q. Yao and Prinsenberg (1999) to investigate the variability of the seasonal evolution of the pack ice along the Canadian east coast. The model is initialized with the temperature and salinity fields compiled by Tang and Wang (1996) and forced by observed atmospheric data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). Simulations are carried out for individual ice seasons; i.e., 1991/92winter simulations cover 6 months, December 1, 1991 to May 29, 1992. Using atmospheric conditions of the 1991/92 winter as a starting point, the model is then used to simulate the deviations from the 1991/92 pack ice conditions due to expected changes in winds and ai