TITLE Temperature scenarios for Norway Empirical downscaling from the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GSDIO integration AUTHORS

The 2m temperature field from the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GSDIO integration (which includes effects of greenhouse-gases and tropospheric ozon, as well as direct and indirect effects of sulphur aeroseols) was used as predictor for empirical downscaling of local monthly mean temperature over Norway during the period 1870-2050. The reason for using temperature as the only predictor, without including the SLP-field or other circulation indices, is that previous investigations have shown that the observed relations between large-scale SLP-field and temperature is very well reproduced by the ECHAM4/OPYC3 model. The empirically downscaled temperature series indicate average annual warming rates of 0.2 to 0.5 oC per decade up to year 2050 at the Norwegian mainland, and 0.6 oC per decade on Svalbard. The warming rates are generally smallest in southern Norway along the west coast. They increase when moving inland and northwards. At the west coast in southern Norway, the modelled warming rates are rather similar in all seasons (0.2-0.3 oC per decade). Further north and in the inland, considerably larger warming rates are expected in winter than in summer. In Northern Norway and in inland valleys also in Southern Norway, winter warming rates of more than 0.5 oC per decade can be expected. A