Chapter 6: A.C.E. Revision II Estimation

The A.C.E. Revision II Dual System Estimate (DSE) methodology was developed with the following objectives in mind: • Integration of the corrections for measurement errors so that we would not overcorrect for measurement errors identified by both the evaluations and the duplicate study. • Separate estimation for both E- and P- Sample persons based on whether or not they linked to a census enumeration outside the search area. • Flexibility in the post-stratification design, because the factors that affect correct enumeration (as measured by the E Sample) were not necessarily the same as those that affect coverage (as measured by the P Sample). • Adjustment for correlation bias. This chapter presents how this additional information was incorporated into the DSE for A.C.E. Revision II estimates. The reader is assumed to be familiar with the basic dual system model and how it was used to produce the March 2001 A.C.E. estimates. For a detailed description of this methodology see Haines (2001). The results of this methodology are presented in Davis (2001). Section 6.1 discusses the approach taken to dual system estimation and also describes the goals of the chapter. Section 6.2 discusses the estimation of the term accounting for persons in the Census who are not in the E Sample. The correct enumeration rate from the E Sample data is described in Section 6.3 while Section 6.4 addresses the estimation of the match rate from the P-Sample data. The census, E Sample, and P Sample data are combined in Section 6.5 to form a single DSE formula while Section 6.6 defines the post-stratification variables used for the A.C.E. Revision II Full and Revision samples. Section 6.7 discusses adjustment for correlation bias using demographic analysis sex ratios. Finally, Section 6.8 discusses synthetic estimation