Measles metapopulation dynamics: A gravity model for epidemiological coupling and dynamics. The American Naturalist

Abstract: Local oscillatory dynamics, fadeout rates and regional phase differ-ences are the most important spatial-temporal manifestations of acute epidemic dynamics. However, few systems are well enough understood and documented to detect all of these properties and to explain their interaction with spatio-temporal variations in population structure and demography. Based on a gravity coupling model and a time series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) model for local dy-namics, we propose a new model for regional measles epidemic dynamics. The model can capture all the major spatio-temporal properties in pre-vaccination epidemics of measles in England and Wales