Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

The Bulgarian Employment Strategy (2004-2010) identifies skill gap as one of the major challenges on the labour market.1 Some of the reasons for this gap are universal in character and result from the increasing competition and globalisation of the world economy and the technological upgrading. Another reasons follow from the specific national conditions such as the demographic determinants of labour force growth. Both groups of reasons are pointed in the Finland report. In Bulgaria,- the economic restructuring under the transition process and the adjustment to market economy should be outlined as well. 1. Demographic constrains on labour supply – transition from ‘surplus’ to ‘shortage ’ of skilled labour force Population ageing as a result of decreasing birth rates (from 12.1 % in 1990 to 8.5 % in 2002), increasing mortality rates (from 12.5 % in 1990 to 14.3 % in 2002)2 and very intensive emigration (221 thousand people in the period 19993-2000)3 contributed to the transition from ‘surplus ’ of ‘shortage ’ of labour force. Further deterioration of the parameters of the population age structure is forecasted in a long run. As shown on Figure 1 the total number of population will decrease by 27%, that of working age population – by 23%, while 65+ population will increase by 49 % thus rising the coefficient of age dependency from 46.2 % in 2002 to 50.4 % i