1ADAPTATION AND WORLD MARKET EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FORESTRY AND FORESTRY PRODUCTS

We use a computable general equilibrium model to study the impacts of climate change on forestry over time. The model is constructed around the GTAP v5 database, with nine regions and eleven production sectors. The model also includes a forestry module, with data of the standing mass and growth rates of the regional forests. The production in the forestry sector is subject to changes in the productivity of “land”, which gives rise to a Ricardian rent on forests. The rent depends partly on the natural prerequisites for growth of the bio-mass, which relate to climatic conditions, but also the infrastructure investments required to gain access to the forests. The forestry sector is impacted by different dimensions of climatic change, such as combinations of changes in temperature and precipitation. For a possible future climate change scenario, we assess the consequences on the world market for forestry and derived products.