The effects of alternative seasonal price differentials on milk production in

Uneven monthly milk production (seasonality) is a major problem to the New York dairy industry. This article estimates expected monthly milk production response to a set of hypothetical seasonal price differentials designed to reduce the degree of seasonality. The analysis is based on a random mail survey and farm record data. The results indicate that a seasonal price differential of $1.12 per cwt. (over three times the current differential) would be necessary to completely balance spring and fall production in New York, based on the perceptions of farmers surveyed. Also, producers with better managerial skills are shown to be able to reduce their seasonality at a significantly lower price differential than less skilled farm managers