Volatility in the Growth Rate of Real GNP: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the volatility in the growth rate of real GNP for Turkey based upon quarterly data covering the period 1987: I-2003: II. Conditional volatility is estimated using the well-known Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model. The empirical re-sults show that, although there were important events for the period, their ef-fects on the growth rate had been no persistent