Multiethnic State in Bosnia: Bound to Fail, Yet Likely to Persist

More than seven years after the Dayton Peace Accords brought a halt to the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the country’s ultimate fate remains uncertain. Despite years of international effort and billions of dollars of outside assistance, Bosnia remains a weak, fragile and deeply divided state on the margins of Europe, as well as an economic basket case. While there can be no doubt that progress has been made, and that Bosnia in 2003 is a much happier place than it was in 1994, the real question is whether sufficient progress has been made to ensure the country’s future as a peaceful, democratic state. The recent return to power of Bosnia’s three main nationalist parties, the very parties which led the country into and through the 1992-95 conflict, has once again raised the question of whether the Bosnian Humpty Dumpty can be put back together again. In the aftermath of the elections, Bosnia’s international High Representative continued to insist that despite the nationalist resurgence, “the foundation for a prosperous democracy is firmly in place ” (Ashdown, 2002). Others within the international community, however, were not so sure, and the columnist William Pfaff probably spoke for many when he suggested that the nationalist return to power signaled the failure of the Dayton project