Projectionmanager: A Knowledge Based Cohort Component Model for Population Projection in Nigeria

Planning is an activity, which refers to the future. Population Projection provides future estimates of population sizes needed by planners. In Nigeria a number of factors have contributed negatively to having an accurate and reliable demographic data. Successive Nigerian Governments have embarked on Population Census in which huge amount of money was expended. Population projection can be made by examining the influence of demographic components (i.e birth, death and migration) of population as it affects population from time to time so as to determine future population. In order to bring out the implication of current trends in mortality, fertility and migration on population growth, a demographic model has been developed. A knowledge based system was used to implement the models developed on current population size and structure. In this study, a knowledge based system for population projection is developed with focus on the people of a community. The study involves using the secondary data from a population census survey in (Olabode 2005). The system is implemented using Visual Basic 6.0, Microsoft access and Microsoft excel. In the Evaluation of Population by Component method, only one form of age specific fertility and mortality was considered. The results show that, the projected population behaves relatively in a fashion described by the vital rates