THE FORECASTING OF THE WORLD OIL PRICE BY SUMMING UP LINEAR TREND AND PERIODIC FUNCTIONS1

The article discuss the analysis of factors forming the world price for oil, the existing methods of forecasting have been considered, the model of forecasting the world oil price, the amounts of the linear trend and periodic functions have been offered on the basis of the theory of business cycles, restrictions on its use have been given grounds for. FACTORS GENERATING FUTURE PRICES Reliable forecasting of the world oil price dynamics for the nearest 5-7 years is an important condition on lessening the uncertainty of the budget and investment processes. Compensation mechanisms for the negative effects of the internal market opening under conditions of degradation of the high technology branches of the processing industry are limited and one way or the other come to the usage of export revenues from gas and oil sales. The intensity of the investment process in the state oil and gas complex itself depends on its size even more. That's why the forecasting of the world oil price on the medium-term outlook characterizes the extent of probability of this or that macroeconomic results achievements over a period of 2006-2020. The forecasting difficulty is preconditioned by the diversity of factors, generating future prices, and lack of methodology of their synthesis in the framework of the common conception. The most relevant factor complexes are identified rather fully with the help of the retrospective analysis of the actual oil price dynamics in the last 150 years. Here is the list of them: 1. Change in the extent of maximum and medium oil production costs as a function of mining and geological, national geographic conditions and scientific and technological progress