Dynamic model and estimation of the future eutrophication for the Lake Prespa

Abstract:- This paper presents a new computing analysis, based on Matlab Simulink, how to build a dynamic model for aquatic surface water bodies in our case the Lake Prespa. The dynamic model, which is more complex than the other models, it involves equation that describes the inside biological and chemical process of the lake and connections between living organisms and phosphorous component, and can be used to long-term prediction of lake behaviour and it’s eutrophication. The model that we are presenting has some limitations, because the nature of the problem is more chaotic than deterministic. We are limited by the changeable outside conditions and the other inside process that are existing into the lake, than we are not have considered. Our model takes only the differential equation that describes the phosphorus cycle inside of the lake. The main contribution of building such model is providing us with future estimating of the eutrophication inside of the lake. In aid of this study is software application called Matlab Simulink which it has unique possibility to simulate a dynamic development (evolution) of the ecosystem for given parameters and input value of the measured components. Many scenarios that have been developed can show the future development of the ecosystem in long-term period, for over 10 years. The experimental results that we have gain are compared with measured values and it has error not more than 10%, which classify our model as good