Canadian Political Science Association in Toronto

This paper analyzes changes in political parties, political leaders, and regional political orientations in Ukraine in 2002-2006. The question is whether these changes are revolutionary or evolutionary. Most previous studies describe the culmination moment of these changes during the 2004 presidential elections as a revolution (the Orange Revolution). My hypothesis is that not a revolution but a major electoral realignment occurred in the Ukrainian politics since 2002. A realignment theory refers to elections that produce significant and relatively long-term changes in dominant parties, leaders, issues and preferences of voters. This study employs comparative analysis of regional support for pro-Yushchenko parties in the 2002 and 2006 parliamentary elections and support for Viktor Yushchenko in the 2004 presidential elections. The paper uses surveys conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology and the Razumkov Center in 2002-2006 to compare changes in political orientations in regions of Ukraine. This paper concludes that the changes in political leadership, regional political orientation, and political parties are best described as an evolutionary electoral realignment and not as a revolution.