Cardiometabolic risk in young adults from northern Mexico: Revisiting body mass index and waist-circumference as predictors

Abstract Background A body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m2 and a waist circumference (WC) ≥80 cm in women (WCF) or ≥90 cm in men (WCM) are reference cardiometabolic risk markers (CMM) for Mexicans adults. However, their reliability to predict other CMM (index tests) in young Mexicans has not been studied in depth. Methods A cross-sectional descriptive study evaluating several anthropometric, physiological and biochemical CMM from 295 young Mexicans was performed. Sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp) and Youden’s index (J) of reference BMI/WC cutoffs toward other CMM (n = 14) were obtained and their most reliable cutoffs were further calculated at Jmax. Results Prevalence, incidence and magnitude of most CMM increased along the BMI range (p < 0.01). BMI explained 81 % of WC’s variance [Se (97 %), Sp (71 %), J (68 %), Jmax (86 %), BMI = 30 kg/m2] and 4–50 % of other CMM. The five most prevalent (≥71 %) CMM in obese subjects were high WC, low HDL-C, and three insulin-related CMM [Fasting insulin, HOMA-IR, and QUICKI]. For a BMI = 30 kg/m2, J ranged from 16 % (HDL-C/LDL-C) to 68 % (WC), being moderately reliable (Jmax = 61–67) to predict high uric acid (UA), metabolic syndrome (MetS) and the hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype (HTGW). Corrected WCM/WCF were moderate-highly reliable (Jmax = 66–90) to predict HTGW, MetS, fasting glucose and UA. Most CMM were moderate-highly predicted at 27 ± 3 kg/m2 (CI 95 %, 25–28), 85 ± 5 cm (CI 95 %, 82–88) and 81 ± 6cm (CI 95 %, 75–87), for BMI, WCM and WCF, respectively. Conclusion BMI and WC are good predictors of several CMM in the studied population, although at different cutoffs than current reference values