Schools, organisational learning and the use of scenario analysis: Some research results. Paper presented at the 5th Annual Australia and New Zealand Systems Conference

For organisations to anticipate the future in a rapidly changing, volatile environment requires more than systematic analysis of the present. It demands creativity, insight and intuition about possible futures. Scenarios- stories about possible futures-combine these three elements into a foundation upon which robust planning and development strategies aimed at change can be implemented. A good scenario enables an organisation to learn and plan for change. This paper outlines the findings of research carried out in several large independent schools in Sydney where scenario analysis was used to stimulate participants to think about the future and how they could plan for change. It demonstrates how the concept of scenarios and scenario analysis were operationalised. The reactions of various participants to the process of scenario analysis are also reported. Based upon the research findings some guidelines for developing and using scenarios and scenario analysis are presented