高等教育報酬的世代差異：勞動市場結構轉型的影響 Cohort Differences in Returns to Higher Education: The Role of Labor Market Transformation

本研究延申排序理論的概念，討論勞動市場結構變遷對新進勞動者教育報酬的影響。本研究將進入勞動市場時期而形塑的集體經驗稱為「勞動市場世代」，應用階層線性模型分析世代共享的市場結構樣貌對教育報酬變遷的影響。研究結果發現：高等教育報酬隨世代而下降，而勞動市場轉型能充分解釋此變遷趨勢。勞動市場的供需結構對高／低技術勞動者造成不同的影響，高等教育擴張降低了高技術勞動者的教育報酬，同時緩減低技術勞動者的不利位置，而相左力量的科技發展則產生完全相反的效果。勞動市場的工作機會分布兩極化發展，僅提升高技術勞動者的教育報酬，而不利於低技術勞動者，特別是當整體高薪工作增加，只有利於原本就處於優勢位置的高技術勞動者。 Extending the queuing theory, this study examines how labor market transformation influences cohort differences in returns to higher education. In this study, I construct the concept of labor market cohort based on the time people enter the labor market, and apply a hierarchical linear model to show how cohort experience in labor market transformation explains cohort differences in returns to education. The analyses indicate two major findings. First, the returns to college decrease successively with each labor market cohort, and labor market transformation explains cohort differences in returns to higher education. Second, the increased supply of educated workers lowers the returns to college and raises wages of less-skilled workers, while the increased demand for educated workers has the opposite effect. Job polarization brings educated workers higher wages, but exacerbates the decline in wages of lower-educated workers. In addition, the general increase in the number of high-paying jobs serves only to benefit higher-educated workers, but to the detriment of less-educated workers