THREAT ASSESSMENTS AND REVIEWS (OR CONFLICT ASSESSMENTS AND DEFENCE REVIEWS): A Note on Current Practice

Threat assessments compile and analyse current and prospective challenges to a country’s security and interests, and may be conducted as part of wider reviews of national security and defence policy and institutions. They may serve as the basis for developing national security policy and strategy. They may also serve as the basis for decisions on how to structure the institutions that implement security policy and strategy.1 Reviews are typically conducted on a periodic basis to evaluate force posture and to determine new budgetary and human resource requirements to support national security strategy. This practice note focuses on processes behind the development of threat assessments and reviews, especially but not exclusively in countries emerging from conflict. It discusses ways to ensure that results of threat assessments and reviews are accepted by national authorities and that the process itself is inclusive and legitimate. The note addresses the challenges of conducting reviews and assessments during ongoing conflict, examines the defence review process, and discusses the need to create procedures for periodic reviews of the security sector. The note does not specifically address assessment of public health threats or potential for natural disasters, but responding to such events may be a secondary role for national security services. Finally, the not