Some Notes on the Strategic Strength of Weak Signal Analysis

Abstract: Foresight is a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a foresight input ‘weak signals ’ can be though as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be articulated into strategically valuable information. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-of events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose problems of interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signal information is that it can be transformed into meaningful knowledge for policy action. However, the value of this information does not materialises automatically; realising this potential requires the a degree of fluidity of the collective cognitive framework by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon