1 Can expansion lead to a more efficient UN Security Council? A Veto Players Analysis*

The aim of this paper is to examine whether an expansion of UNSC would weaken its decision capacity. To do so, we applied veto players theory to the widely discussed expansion scenarios proposed by the High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. To locate the states on their decision space, we applied factor analysis on post-Cold War roll call votes in the UN General Assembly. We obtained that we live in a multi-dimensional international security world, where the first underlying factor is responsible for around 40 % of the variance, far above the rest, and is strongly correlated with GDP per capita. Nevertheless, we conducted both one and multi-dimensional spatial analysis, to take into account the different and competing suggestions of the relevant literature. In all cases, we come to the conclusion that the proposed reform does not lead to a less efficient decision-making. The core of such an expanded UNSC is always smaller if not the same with the core of the current Council, due to the fact that most of the potential new members belong to the middle or upper level of economic development