DEVELOPMENT OF A SEMI-EMPIRICAL LOSS MODEL WITHIN THE USGS PROMPT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL EARTHQUAKES FOR RESPONSE (PAGER) SYSTEM

The U.S. Geological Survey operates an automated system that immediately estimates an earthquake’s impact on humans for events around the globe. The system, called PAGER, for Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response, estimates the number of people exposed to potentially damaging shaking. PAGER’s rapid estimates of an earthquake’s impact, and supporting products, inform the decisions by governments, insurance agencies, and relief organizations to release aid funds, prioritize regions for closer reconnaissance, and mobilize rescue teams. PAGER now incorporates estimates of both economic and fatality losses using empirical methods based on countrywide losses from past earthquakes. Here, we focus on recent developments associated with engineering-based loss-estimation capabilities within the PAGER system. In particular, semi-empirical procedures are described that incorporate newly-derived, country-specific building inventories and vulnerability functions as well as day/night population distributions within these structures. These data sets, now available online, constitute the key ingredients for our semi-empirical model and form the foundation for PAGER’s fully analytical loss model, described in a companion paper