HISTORICAL OVERVIEW

Over the past 54 years, Taiwan, an island situated approximately 160 kilometres off mainland China and covering about 45,000 square kilometres, has been the focal point of several severe crises. The undetermined status of the island, representing an unresolved problem of the Chinese Civil War, is a source of constant tension across the Taiwan Strait. These tensions are particularly worrisome since two of the parties involved, namely the United States of America (USA) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)1 are nuclear powers. In an attempt to analyse the Taiwan ‘problem’, this part of the paper will give an overview of the historical developments leading to the present status. The implications of China’s transformation during the last 50 years will be discussed as well as Taiwan’s progress towards a Western style democracy. Subsequently, factors and perceptions shaping the triangular US–Taiwan–China relationship will be addressed, namely the PRC’s insistence on reunification, the ROC’s strive for independence and America’s ambiguous stance on the issue. Finally, this paper will venture to give a preview into the near- to medium- term future, making the point that a solution satisfying all parties involved is nowhere on the horizon