RISK ASSESSMENTS IN THE TEXAS CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM

Over the years the criminal justice system throughout the United States has re-lied on psychiatrists and psychologists to make predictions regarding future violence. In earlier years this question was framed as “predicting dangerousness ” and the answer was often a simple “yes ” or “no. ” With little or no scientific basis for these “crystal ball read-ings, ” predictions were frequently wrong. Follow-up studies on patients released who were considered dangerous sometimes indicated false positive rates higher than 80%. The field research conducted in the area was so poorly controlled that it is impossible to determine any exact percentages. It seems clear, however, that the potential for violence was overestimated in many cases. Over the last 20 years, the volume of data collected in regard to the prediction of violent behavior has increased exponentially. The field has graduated from the predic-tion of dangerousness, a dichotomous question, to assessment of risk, an estimate of the probability of violent behavior given specific circumstances over a particular time period. From risk assessment there developed models for mental health professionals to engage in risk management (efforts aimed at reducing each factor precipitating risk to a level allowing the individual to function in the least restrictive environment). Although it re-sults in far-from-perfect prediction, the plethora of new data has allowed mental health professionals to provide much more valuable information regarding risk. Risk assessments by mental health professionals are often requested because they are required by statute or because they may otherwise be helpful to a decision-maker. The assessments gener-ally address the circumstances under or environments in which a