A system-of-systems framework of Nuclear Power Plant Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis by Fault Tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract: We propose a quantitative safety analysis of a critical plant with respect to the occurrence of an earthquake, extending the envelope of the study to the interdependent infrastructures which are connected to it in a “system-of-systems ” – like fashion. As a mock-up case study, we consider the impacts produced on a nuclear power plant (the critical plant) embedded in the connected power and water distribution, and transportation networks which support its operation. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of such system of systems is carried out by Fault Tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. As outcome of the analysis, the probability that the nuclear power plant reaches an unsafe state is computed for different earthquake’s epicentre distances and the contribution of the interdependent infrastructures to the safety of such critical plant is highlighted