The Unequal E¤ects of Weather and Climate Change: Evidence from Mortality in India

Weather uctuations have shaped the economic activities of humans for centuries. And in poor, developing countries, where large swathes of the population continue to de-pend on basic agriculture, the weather continues to be a key determinant of production and employment. This raises the possibility that weather shocks may translate into increases in mortality. To investigate this possibility we examine the relationship be-tween weather and death across Indian districts between 1957 and 2000. Our estimates imply that hot days (and de\u85cient rainfall) cause large and statistically signi\u85cant in-creases in mortality within a year of their occurrence. The e¤ects are only observed for rural populations and not for urban populations, and it is only hot days that occur during the period when crops are growing in the \u85elds that account for these e¤ects. We also show that hot and dry weather depresses agricultural output and wages, and raises agricultural prices, in rural areas but that similar e¤ects are absent in urban areas. Using the coe ¢ cients from our analysis of Indian districts combined with two leading models of climate change we demonstrate that the mortality increasing impacts of global warming are likely to be far more strongly felt by rural Indians relative to their counterparts in urban India or the US