The Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks

We document the cyclical properties of U.S. firms ’ financial flows. Equity payouts are procyclical and debt payouts are countercyclical. We develop a model with explicit roles for debt and equity financing and explore how the observed dynamics of real and financial variables are affected by ‘financial shocks’. Standard productivity shocks can only partially explain the movements in real and financial variables. The addition of financial shocks brings the model much closer to the data. The recent events in the financial sector show up clearly as a tightening of firms ’ financing conditions causing the GDP decline i