ECONOMIC AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF NON-LARGE NUCLEAR REACTORS WITH COGENERATION OPTION IN

Analysis presented in this paper consists of two parts: the modelling of future Lithuanian energy system development options and the analysis of the influence of main initial model parameters to the calculation results (sensitivity and uncertainty analysis). Economical analysis was concentrating on evaluation of possibilities to construct small and medium nuclear reactors in Lithuania. The IRIS (International Reactor Innovative and Secure) nuclear reactor as an example of SMR was chosen in this analysis. The MESSAGE modelling tool was used for modelling of the future energy system development in Lithuania. The aim of sensitivity analysis is to identify the main contributors to the possible variations of modeling results. In this particular case we have analyzed how the calculation results of Lithuanian energy system development scenarios could change, when changing the initial parameters describing IRIS technology in the mathematical model