Risk Assessment of the Mediterranean Seabass and Seabream industry in Greece: A Stochastic Simulation Approach Based on insurance Claims

The Mediterranean finfish aquaculture is strongly represented from the successful industrial development of the mass production of the Mediterranean seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) and seabream (Spaurus aurata), with Greece as the major producer country, contributing with approximately 57% of the global farmed production of both species. Despite the difficulty to obtain information from the private and public sector about the aquaculture insurance claims, the analysis of insurance data is necessary to develop a risk management strategy of the industry. The aim of the present work is to identify the major risks affecting the seabass/seabream aquaculture by examining qualitative and quantitative insurance claims from the early developmental stage (mid-80s) up to the maturation of the Greek sector (2000). A risk assessment based on scenario quantification and Monte Carlo Simulation with the ZHA WORKS 4.2 QUANT software is used to reveal percentile statistics of 1 Year/Worst out of x Years aggregate loss and thus to "harden" the basis for decision taking. The use of the past insurance experience provides forecasting trends for risk avoidance in the future and contributes to a strategy development for the sustainability of the sector