Climatic influences on needle cohort survival mediated by Swiss needle cast in coastal Douglas-fir

This is the author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by Springer and can be found at: http://link.springer.com/journal/468.Swiss needle cast (SNC) severity in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) has been shown to vary spatially and temporally in response to climatic factors both within its native range and in regions where it has been planted as an exotic species. Survival models were developed for different Douglas-fir needle cohorts to enhance our understanding of how climatic influences on needle longevity are mediated by SNC in the Oregon Coast Range. The climate-based models were based on repeated measurement of 100 plots between 1998 and 2005 coupled with downscaled PRISM climate data. Potential predictors of needle survival by annual cohort were selected from numerous climatic variables at annual, seasonal, and monthly scales. Needle survival probability was positively associated with maximum summer temperature, and negatively associated with minimum winter temperature and spring precipitation. Seasonal climate variables associated with needle longevity are consistent with current epidemiological understanding of Phaeocyrptopus gaeumannii, as well as with previous analyses of climatic influences on SNC severity as measured by average years of foliage retention and frequency of fungal fruiting bodies, or pseudothecia, in stomates