GLOBAL WARMING: THE PSYCHOLOGY OF LONG TERM RISK

Beyond its objective basis in natural science, understanding, discussion, and res-olution of the policy issue labeled “global warming ” also depends on the way it is framed by various groups (Haas, 1992), and ultimately, viewed by members of the general public. Accordingly, there are several prisms, not entirely independent, through which to consider the global warming problem. In public discussion, natu-ral scientists tend to frame the issue through the answers to questions like “what is the probability that global mean temperature will increase by 3 ◦C by 2100? ” Based in part on the resulting scientific picture, economists pose additional questions like “what is the cost to the national economy of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 10 % by year 2010? ” Policy makers are attentive to both these frames of reference (and others) but consider further issues like “how will climate change and emissions mitigation affect the major constituencies of my political party?” It would be a mistake to assume that physical scientists and economists ask the basic questions while policy makers and others simply absorb the answers before developing additional questions. Over time, each group frames the issue with a