SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND POLICY PREFERENCE

The reintroduction of classic elements from the real world into the study of US elections—of social class, religious background, and racial identity, along with ideational preferences for public policy—is a welcome development. But three features of recent efforts to get at these elements in summary fashion strike us as unfortunate. First, analysis tends to focus on one principle of potential division at a time, at the expense of other principles which even the analyst admits to be simultaneously in play. Second, discussion has turned very quickly to grand and gross mechanisms, as with ideological realignment rather than partisan persuasion. Third, the time horizon for both tends to be truncated. In fact, these three shortcomings tend to be mutually reinforcing, as when concern with mechanisms forces analysts to use constricted data sources. In particular, these limitations reflect a trope that itself gets too much attention: polarization. So we propose to step back and ask basic questions about the postwar evolution of the party system. We focus on the vote, which is always the ultimate explanandum for mass political behavior. In this paper, we look at House elections only, though in subsequent ones we shall diversify the portfolio. As much as possible, we let history take its natural course, running the analysis back to 1952 and allowing time to unfold on a biennial rhythm, although we ofte