Preliminary and incomplete. Please do not cite. Climate Change and the Allocation of Time

Abstract: In this paper we estimate the impacts of climate change on the allocation of time using econometric models that exploit plausibly exogenous variation in daily temperature over time within counties. Our results reveal a starkly asymmetric inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and outdoor activities, with a nearly one-to-one rate of substitution between these activities and sedentary indoor activities. Similar relationships arise using cross-sectional models, suggesting limited scope for long-run adaptation given the current technology environment. Our estimates imply on average the allocation of time will change very little under various climate change scenarios, but tremendous heterogeneity throughout the country point towards potentially interesting implications for population health and internal US migration in the future. 1 Climate change is expected to warm the earth considerably in the coming decades. Even a dramatic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would not avert substantial increases in temperature. These temperature changes, in turn, are likely to exert profound impacts on the way in which humans interact with the planet.