A Strategic Assessment of Biofuels Development in the Western States

Abstract: The Western Governors ’ Association assessment of biofuels potential in western states estimated the location and capacity of biofuels plants that could potentially be built for selected gasoline prices in 2015 using a mixed integer programming model. The model included information on forest biomass supply curves by county (developed using Forest Service FIA data), agricultural biomass supply curves, transportation networks, and capital and operating costs of selected conversion technologies. Results indicate biofuels could potentially provide between 5 and 10 percent of projected transportation fuel demand in the region with fuel price between $2.40 and $3.00 per gasoline gallon equivalence (gge) excluding local distribution costs and taxes. At a target price of $2.40/gge, forest biomass could supply an estimated 11 million oven dry tons per year, or about 9 percent of total feedstock supplied