Identifying Temporal Patterns for Characterization and Prediction of Financial Time Series Events

Abstract. The novel Time Series Data Mining (TSDM) framework is applied to analyzing financial time series. The TSDM framework adapts and innovates data mining concepts to analyzing time series data. In particular, it creates a set of methods that reveal hidden temporal patterns that are characteristic and pre-dictive of time series events. This contrasts with other time series analysis tech-niques, which typically characterize and predict all observations. The TSDM framework and concepts are reviewed, and the applicable TSDM method is dis-cussed. Finally, the TSDM method is applied to time series generated by a bas-ket of financial securities. The results show that statistically significant tempo-ral patterns that are both characteristic and predictive of events in financial time series can be identified.