Aggregating disparate estimates of chance

We consider a panel of experts asked to assign probabilities to events, both logi-cally simple and complex. The events evaluated by different experts are based on overlapping sets of variables but may otherwise be distinct. The union of all the judgments will likely be probabilistic incoherent. We address the problem of revis-ing the probability estimates of the panel so as to produce a coherent set that best represents the group’s expertise. Key words: aggregation, probability, forecasting, coherenc