Cost-benefit of stockpiling drugs for influenza pandemic." Emerging Infectious Diseases 11(8

We analyzed strategies for the use of stockpiled anti-viral drugs in the context of a future influenza pandemic and estimated cost-benefit ratios. Current stockpiling of oseltamivir appears to be cost-saving to the economy under several treatment strategies, including therapeutic treatment of patients and postexposure prophylactic treat-ment of patients ’ close contacts. The widespread epidemic of highly pathogenic avianinfluenza that emerged in east Asia continues today. As the epidemic grows, so does the probability that this viru-lent virus will acquire genetic traits for increased person-to-person transmissibility, potentially setting the stage for the next global influenza pandemic (1). The next pandemic will be associated with major adverse health and economic outcomes, with estimated costs reaching US$166 billion in the United States alon