ARTICLE IN PRESS + MODELKeywords: Low turnout; Partisan bias; Democracy

Countries like Switzerland and the US have long had turnout rates below 50 % for national elections, but in recent years low turnout in national elections has become much more widespread. Blais et al. (2004) and Gray and Caul (2000) found a downward trend in national election turnout, and countries such as the UK and Finland, which appeared to have resisted this trend, have experienced a sudden drop in turnout in recent national elections. Most countries also have sec-ond-order contests such as European Parliament elec-tions or local elections with particularly low turnout rates. As turnout falls, concerns about the functioning of democracy are rising. In a much cited article based on his 1996 APSA Presidential address Arend Lijphart calls low turnout a serious democratic problem and de-mocracy’s ‘‘unresolved dilemma’ ’ (Lijphart, 1997, 1), the reason being that it makes the operation of electoral democracy unequal: some voices are heard and others are silent. In the eyes of many democratic theorists (Barber, 1984; Pateman, 1970) participation is essential for democracy and there is a general feeling among many politicians and political commentators that high turnout is important for democracies. It is suggested that the legitimacy of democracy in general and the out-comes of elections in particular are undermined when many citizens do not participate (Cavanagh, 1981, 62