Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis with Uncertainties

Along with the commonly used parameters like peak acceleration and response spectral amplitudes, knowledge of many other parameters like strong-motion duration, peak strains, likelihood for initiation of liquefaction, and permanent dislocations across faults is necessary to have a more comprehensive estimate of the earthquake effects on a variety of man-made structures. The present paper provides a concise but complete description of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method to map any of these quantities with a uniform probability of not being exceeded due to the total expected seismicity during a specified life period. Example results are presented to illustrate the application of the PSHA method in preparing the microzonation maps for several different hazard parameters. The paper also proposes simple practical solutions for some of the difficulties faced in implementing the existing PSHA method in real applications