NET FLOWS, page 1 Indirect Estimation of Student Net Flows and Dropout Rates: Concepts and Examples

A new measure of dropping out, based on a modified demographic balancing equation, is a simple, robust measure that provides meaningful information about grade-by-grade attrition. The technique described in this article derives grade-specific net-flow rates and estimated measures of dropping out from graduation and grade-specific enrollment and retention counts. It is based on the demographic balancing equation, usable for small areas such as school districts, susceptible to adjustment for migration, and less susceptible to errors in administrative data sources than the most common current "dropout rate " used for school districts. Sample statewide calculations from Texas for three years (1998-99, 1999-2000, 2000-01) show stability in grade-specific measures for larger population groups and crucial grades. The statewide calculations for Native Americans in Texas show less stability, which may reflect the fact that net flows by population group measure the flow of classification in and out of categories as well as in and out of schools