An analysis of the ENSO signal in the tropical Atlantic and western Indian Oceans

This article examines the time–space evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in the tropical Atlantic and western Indian Oceans, using harmonic analysis. Composites of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and other variables are examined for a 24-month period beginning 6 months prior to the year of maximum warming in the Pacific (termed year 0). An ENSO signal is apparent in the Atlantic in six out of eight Pacific episodes and in the Indian Ocean in all eight episodes. Warming begins along the south-eastern Atlantic coast early in year 0, some months later elsewhere in the Atlantic and in the Indian Ocean. Maximum warming occurs in the Atlantic in October–December of year 0, but in the following January–March in the Indian Ocean. In these oceans a ‘cold ’ phase occurs synchronously with the first half of the Pacific episode (July of year 7 1 to June of year 0, in the Rasmusson–Carpenter terminology), a ‘warm ’ phase with the second half. Maximum cooling is 1 year prior to maximum warming in both oceans. In the Atlantic the cold phase occurs most consistently; in the Indian Ocean the warm phase occurs most consistently. There is a season-by-season reversal of SST anomalies and, to a lesser extent, pressure anomalies between the cold and warm phases. This is the basis for the biennial component of the ENSO signal. Our results indicate that the ENSO signal in African rainfall variability is a manifestation of ENSO’s influence on SSTs in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and, in turn, their influence on rainfall. The cold and warm phases correspond roughly t