Explaining Differences in Welfare Caseload Declines Across California’s Counties1

Focusing on welfare policy differences at the county level in California, this paper explores the reasons for the differing declines in welfare recipiency rates across the state’s counties. Using a regression framework, it attempts to isolate the effects of differences in counties ’ economic characteristics, demographic characteristics, and policy choices on differences in counties ’ recipiency rate trends. The paper concludes that two county policies, as well as a few demographic and economic characteristics, may help explain the differing trends in caseloads observed across the state. 1 I would like to thank Professor MaCurdy for his valuable assistance on this project during the last year and a half. I am also grateful to Dana Rapoport and Margaret O ’ Brien-Strain for reading preliminary drafts of this paper. All remaining errors are no doubt my fault. After the passage of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA) on the federal level, states were forced to reform their welfare systems dramatically. One key change among the several federal changes was that PRWORA replace