The Importance of Ideas: An A Priori Critical Juncture Framework

This paper sets out an improved framework for examining critical junctures. This framework, while rigorous and broadly applicable, already an advance on the frameworks currently employed, primarily seeks to incorporate an a priori element. Until now the frameworks utilised in examining critical junctures have been entirely postdictive in nature. Adding a predictive element to the concept will constitute a significant advance for historical institutionalism in particular, and political science in general. The new framework, and its predictive element, termed the “differentiating factor, ” is tested here in examining economic crises, and subsequent changes in macroeconomic policy, in both America and Sweden