SPECIFIC COST DEVELOPMENT OF PHOTOVOLTAIC AND CONCENRATED SOLAR THERMAL SYSTEMS DEPENDING ON THE GLOBAL IRRADIATION- A STUDY PERFORMED WITH THE SIMULATION ENVIRONMENT GREENIUS

Abstract – This paper describes detailed simulations of solar thermal parabolic trough power plants, non-tracked and two-axis-tracked PV systems. Altogether 61 sites in Europe and North Africa covering a global annual irradiation range from 923 to 2438 kWh/(m a) have been chosen. Simulation results are usable irradiation by the systems, specific annual system output and levelised electricity costs. Costs as-sumptions are made for today’s costs and expected costs in 10 years considering different learning curves for the three techniques. This will lead to a cost reduction by 50 % for PV systems and by 40 % for solar thermal power plants. The simulation results clearly point the optimal irradiation range for the best sys-tem output and best-cost solution of the different system variants. At low irradiation values the annual output of solar thermal systems is much lower than of PV systems. On the contrary, at high irradiation values solar thermal systems provide the best-cost solution even in 10 years if we consider higher cost re-duction factors for PV. Electricity generation costs much below 10 Eurocents per kWh for solar thermal systems and about 15 Eurocents/kWh for PV can be expected in 10 years in North Africa